In recent weeks, the cryptocurrency market has been dominated by news of a growing shortage of bitcoin on exchanges. According to data from 10X Research and Glassnode, the supply of BTC on trading platforms has reached its lowest level since late 2020, when the previous bull market was just getting going. Is this a prelude to Bitcoin's price breaking above the magic $100 mark?
Why is there a shortage of bitcoins on exchanges?
As the data suggests, investors are massively moving their BTC to private wallets, thereby limiting supply on exchanges. This situation contrasts with the summer, when an oversupply of bitcoins led to price declines. Now, long-term holders are holding on to their positions, which further reduces liquidity.
According to the portal decrypt, smaller exchanges are starting to have trouble maintaining liquidity, which could lead to increased price volatility. Capital could move to larger platforms, which in turn would drive BTC prices higher.
What drives demand for Bitcoin?
- Policy and legislative announcements
US President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve by the US government, a signal that the market is reading as a potential impetus for massive BTC purchases. Although the bill regulating this action is still in the legislative phase, investors are trying to get ahead of the move. - The self-fulfilling prophecy effect
The cryptocurrency market is cyclical, and many analysts believe that 2025 will bring another bull run. Investors, anticipating growth, are already buying BTC, increasing the pressure on the price growth. - On-chain data
According to Glassnode, the 30-day moving average of bitcoins available on exchanges has reached an all-time low, a phenomenon last seen in 2020, just before the BTC price surge.
Current situation on the Bitcoin market
The current price of Bitcoin is approximately 95 239 USD, which is a slight increase from the previous close. In the last 24 hours, the price reached a high of 97 426 USD and minimum 94 545 USD.
Bitcoin Forecasts
Optimistic scenarios:
- According to Binance analysis, Bitcoin price may reach 101 517 USD in 2025, and by 2030 the value may increase to 129 565 USD.
- Tim Draper, a famous Silicon Valley investor, predicts that the price of BTC will reach as much as 250 000 USD.
Risk factors:
- Regulatory volatility, particularly in the context of planned legislation in the US.
- Potential shift of investor interest towards altcoins.
Summary: Will Bitcoin Reach $100?
The current state of the Bitcoin market suggests that a breakout above $100 is becoming increasingly likely. Rising demand, shrinking supply, and potential legislative action could all contribute to further price increases. Nevertheless, investors should remain cautious and consider the potential risks.
As Warren Buffett noted:
“The financial market is a tool for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
In the case of Bitcoin, patience may be the key to success.
Technical data
- Token name: Bitcoin (BTC)
- Price: 95 239 USD
- Market capitalization: $1,85 trillion
- 24h turnover: 38 billion USD
- Total supply: 21 million BTC
- Current Circulating Supply: 19,5 million BTC